A recent survey indicates that a hard-right candidate is leading in the first round of Romania’s presidential election rerun scheduled for May. This election will be crucial in determining whether Bucharest continues its pro-European trajectory established in recent years.
The AtlasIntel survey also revealed that Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, is expected to defeat either of the two far-right candidates who will compete in the second and final round of the election.
Romania, a member of NATO and the EU, is set to hold its two-round presidential election on May 4 and 18 after the highest court annulled the original vote from December due to allegations of Russian interference favoring far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, who had been leading in the polls.
Moscow has denied any involvement in the election.
Following the court’s decision to block Georgescu’s candidacy for the rerun, two prominent figures from Romania’s hard right, George Simion and Anamaria Gavrila, have emerged as candidates, agreeing that one would withdraw if both were approved.
The Central Electoral Bureau (CEB) has accepted both candidacies, but a decision on who will withdraw has yet to be made.
Simion, the leader of the Alliance of Uniting Romanians (AUR), Romania’s second-largest party, and Gavrila, the leader of the Young People Party (POT), have both supported Georgescu and are inciting nationalist sentiments with their passionate speeches.
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The AtlasIntel survey, conducted between March 13 and 15 and published on the news website hotnews.ro, indicated that either Simion or Gavrila would likely receive the majority of votes in the first round. Simion is projected to garner 30.4% of the vote if he runs as the far-right candidate, while Gavrila is expected to receive 30.2% if she enters the race.
However, according to the survey, Bucharest mayor Dan, running as an independent, is anticipated to win the crucial second round due to his widespread appeal among various voter groups, although many respondents remain undecided.
Romania’s far-right political parties typically adopt a pro-Russian stance in their foreign policy and are against offering military assistance to neighboring Ukraine. This position would create a conflict for Bucharest with the European Union and NATO should either Simion or Gavrila assume the presidency.
