Portugal’s governing center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) maintains its lead in a new opinion poll released on Friday, ahead of the national election scheduled for May 18. However, the poll suggests the AD will likely fall short of securing a majority in parliament, indicating continued political fragmentation.
The ICS/ISCTE survey, published by Expresso newspaper, shows support for the AD dropping slightly to 32% from 33% two weeks prior. The AD’s main rivals, the center-left Socialists, also experienced a decline, falling to 27% from 29%.
Under Portugal’s proportional representation system, achieving a parliamentary majority requires at least 42% of the vote, a threshold the AD is unlikely to reach based on current polling data.
The March 2024 election resulted in a near tie between the AD and the Socialists, with 28% and 27% of the vote, respectively. This outcome led to the formation of a minority AD government.
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Jose Tomaz Castello Branco, a political science professor at the Catholic University of Portugal, commented that polling data suggests “on the day after the election, the situation will not be that different from what it is today,” calling it “the most dramatic result.”
Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, currently in a caretaker role, failed to win a vote of confidence in parliament two months ago after the opposition raised concerns about his integrity regarding his family’s data protection consultancy. This led to the upcoming election, Portugal’s third parliamentary election in as many years. Montenegro has denied any allegations of wrongdoing.
The far-right party Chega, with whom Montenegro refuses to form any alliances, is polling at 19%, an increase from the 18% it received in last year’s election. This suggests the party has remained largely unaffected by recent scandals involving several senior members.
The Liberal Initiative is polling at 5%, virtually unchanged from a year ago, and insufficient to provide a potential alliance with the AD a full majority.
The poll indicates that 12% of voters remain undecided.
ICS/ISCTE surveyed 1,002 people between April 25 and May 5, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
