Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was indicted on Tuesday for allegedly orchestrating a scheme to topple the government and jeopardize the nation’s four-decade-old democracy following his defeat in the 2022 elections, thereby complicating his slim prospects for a political resurgence.
These charges stem from a two-year investigation into the election-denying movement, which escalated into riots by Bolsonaro’s supporters in the capital shortly after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva assumed office in early 2023.
Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet accused the far-right leader and his running mate, General Walter Braga Netto, of heading a “criminal organization” that sought to establish a new regime in Brazil, which included plans to poison Lula.
In total, 34 individuals have been charged in connection with the conspiracy, including several military officials, such as Bolsonaro’s former national security adviser, retired General Augusto Heleno, and former Navy Commander Almir Garnier Santos, as detailed in the charge document.
“The responsibility for acts harmful to the democratic order falls upon a criminal organization led by Jair Messias Bolsonaro, based on an authoritarian project of power,” it added.
Lawyers representing Bolsonaro said in a Tuesday statement that he never supported any movement aimed at dismantling Brazil’s democratic rule of law or the institutions that uphold it.
Analysts consider it unlikely Bolsonaro will be arrested before his trial, unless Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case, deems him a flight risk.
The case echoes the criminal charges faced by U.S. President Donald Trump that accused him of seeking to overturn his own re-election loss in 2020. That case was repeatedly delayed and ultimately dropped after Trump was returned to power in last November’s U.S. election.
The allegations against Bolsonaro arise just months after Brazil’s federal police completed a two-year investigation into his involvement in the election-denial movement, which led to the riots by his supporters in the capital, Brasilia, in early 2023, shortly after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva assumed office.
During the protests, many participants expressed their intention to incite chaos as a pretext for a military coup they believed was on the horizon. In late 2022, law enforcement apprehended five individuals accused of conspiring to assassinate the leftist Lula prior to his inauguration.
Prosecutors have indicated that the plot orchestrated by Bolsonaro included schemes to poison Lula, a former union leader who has previously held the presidency for two terms.
Lula won a narrow victory over the right-wing candidate in the late 2022 presidential election.
A PLOT TO TAKE CONTROL
They aimed for complete dominance over the three branches of government and proposed a central office designed to facilitate the new order they planned to implement, as stated in the charging document regarding those allegedly involved in the coup attempt.
Former army captain Bolsonaro has consistently denied any wrongdoing, labeling the accusations against him as a politically motivated witch hunt.
In a post on X on Tuesday night, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, criticized the charges as an “unconstitutional and immoral mission to cater to the whims of Alexandre de Moraes and the sinister interests of Lula.”
This indictment on Tuesday represents the first criminal charge against Bolsonaro, despite his facing multiple legal challenges related to his actions during his presidency following his defeat in the reelection campaign.
Brazil’s Federal Electoral Court has made two prior rulings that prevent him from seeking the presidency until 2030.
Bolsonaro’s legal team has a two-week period to address the allegations before the Supreme Court determines whether to accept the charges and possibly conduct a high-profile, televised trial.
If found guilty, Bolsonaro could face a minimum of twelve years in prison.
DIMMING COMEBACK HOPES
There is a 99% likelihood that the Supreme Court will accept the charges, stated Vera Chemim, a constitutional attorney based in Sao Paulo. “However, for a conviction against Bolsonaro to occur, the Supreme Court will require substantial evidence.”
Two months ago, Bolsonaro’s former running mate, General Braga Netto, was taken into custody after being accused by police of obstructing the investigations. In a statement released late Tuesday, his legal team described the allegations as a “fantasy” that would not tarnish his “impeccable record” over four decades of service in the Brazilian Army.
A representative for former Navy chief Garnier Santos indicated that he would provide a comment after thoroughly reviewing the charges, while a lawyer for General Heleno, who serves as Bolsonaro’s national security adviser, did not respond promptly to a request for comment.
A conviction from the Supreme Court could present a significant barrier to Bolsonaro’s aspirations for the 2026 presidential election, potentially setting the stage for a rematch with Lula.
A law enacted in 2010, which Bolsonaro supported during his tenure in Congress, prohibits anyone convicted by an appeals court from seeking public office.
According to two individuals close to Bolsonaro, the former president has limited expectations for a favorable ruling from the courts. Instead, his supporters are focusing on rallying political backing to exert pressure on the judiciary and legislators to facilitate his return to politics.
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On Tuesday, just hours before prosecutors filed charges against him, Bolsonaro convened with opposition senators to deliberate on a proposed bill aimed at reducing the duration of disqualification from elections for politicians found guilty of misconduct.
Some conservatives are feeling more confident due to Lula’s declining popularity, as indicated by recent polling data, although the likelihood of the legislation passing remains uncertain. A February poll conducted by Datafolha revealed that just 24% of Brazilians support Lula’s administration, marking the lowest approval rating he has received during any of his three presidential terms.
