PARIS — In France, getting rid of governments is now about as commonplace as complaining about them.
François Bayrou is bracing to become the latest prime minister to get the chop on Monday ― primarily because of discontent over his spending plans for next year ― leaving President Emmanuel Macron on the hunt for a fifth PM in less than two years.
The political crisis could have ramifications far beyond the halls of power in Paris if lawmakers can’t figure out how to rein in runaway public spending and a massive budget deficit.
Here’s everything you need to know about the drama ahead:
He’s definitely going, right?
Yes, it’s pretty much nailed on that Bayrou will fall. Anything else would need a last-minute U-turn from a big chunk of opposition lawmakers, and that would be a massive shock.
His fate seem sealed in the hours after he unveiled his plan for a confidence vote late last month, when leaders from the far-left France Unbowed, far-right National Rally and center-left Socialist Party all announced they would vote to bring down the government.
Neither Bayrou’s PR blitz nor his meetings with political leaders last week appear to have moved the needle.
So what’s happening Monday?
Bayrou is delivering what’s known as a d´eclaration de politique générale (general policy statement), a speech traditionally given at the outset of a prime minister’s tenure to lay out an incoming government’s platform and priorities. (It’s a bit like a state of the union.) The longtime centrist is using this one to make the case for his unpopular 2026 budget.
Prime ministers often follow their addresses with a confidence vote to ensure support for their agendas, though they aren’t constitutionally obliged to do so. Bayrou didn’t hold a vote after his January DPG, nor did any of his predecessors during Macron’s second term.
This time, he will.
Bayrou has tried to frame the vote as a referendum on the need for drastic action to balance the books and has quibbled with the French media’s framing of Monday’s drama as a confidence vote or censure. But in practice, that’s what it is.
How will the day unfold?
Bayrou’s speech will begin at 3 p.m. in the National Assembly in Paris, France’s more-powerful lower house of parliament. Representatives from each political party will follow, with each of their speaking times determined by how many seats they have. Then the prime minister will have the opportunity to deliver closing remarks.
Voting should take place around 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. and should last about 30 minutes, after which the president of the National Assembly will announce the results.
Macron’s office has not yet said whether he will speak following the vote. When ex-Prime Minister Michel Barnier was toppled in December, Macron waited 24 hours to deliver a primetime address.
How did we get here?
Let’s rewind to June 9, 2024, when the far-right National Rally scored a huge win in the European election. Macron responded by dissolving parliament, a massive bet that backfired in spectacular fashion.
In the ensuing vote, an alliance of left-leaning political parties won more seats than any other political force, but fell short of an absolute majority. After nearly two months without a proper government, Macron’s centrists and the center-right conservatives agreed to form a minority coalition led by former Brexit negotiator Barnier.
Barnier lasted three months, taken down in December over his plan to trim the 2025 budget to help rein in runaway public spending.
Macron replaced Barnier with Bayrou, who in July presented a plan to squeeze next year’s budget by €43.8 billion to get the budget deficit down from a projected 5.4 percent of gross domestic product this year to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2026.
Opposition lawmakers howled in fury at the plan, which included axing two public holidays.
In late August, as the French started to trickle back from their summer vacations, Bayrou stunned the country by announcing that he would hold a confidence vote on his spending plans before what were expected to be tense negotiations.
Should I care?
Yes, because the ensuing crisis in the eurozone’s second-biggest economy could drag the entire bloc into a debt-fueled financial crisis, according to Bayrou.
France was able to stave off an economic catastrophe during the pandemic and when energy prices shot up at the outset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, in part thanks to massive public spending. Finding a consensus on reining in expenditures has proven difficult, and lawmakers are loath to tighten their belts as aggressively as Bayrou wants.
His plan would bring France’s budget deficit down from a projected 5.6 percent of GDP this year to 4.6 percent in 2026. The ultimate goal is to bring that figure down to 3 percent, as required by EU rules, by 2029.
Financial institutions and rating agencies have repeatedly warned of consequences should France fail to act, some of which are no longer hypothetical.
Borrowing costs are rising, with the yield on France’s benchmark 10-year bonds ― a useful indicator of faith in a country’s finances ― drifting away from historically safe Germany’s yields and toward those of Italy, a country long synonymous with reckless spending and unsustainable debt.
Getting the French to tighten their belts has so far proven to be Mission Impossible, but the situation is not yet so dire that it’s time to call in the IMF.
Bayrou, however, is betting his political future that history will prove him right.