The latest escalation in the conflict in the Middle East is threatening to plunge travel into chaos comparable to the Covid-19 pandemic.
US-Israel joint airstrikes on Iran and the country’s retaliation over the weekend pushed the tensions in the region over the boiling point and into active conflict.
With airstrikes spilling into the neighbouring Gulf states, airspace and airport closures and the evacuation of thousands of British nationals, many are feeling far from confident to travel.
As the volatile situation is rapidly changing, uncertainty is also looming over the Easter holidays next month.
What will happen with Easter holiday flights?
Best of Metro Deals
Get exclusive discounts with Metro Deals – save on getaways and spa days. Powered by Wowcher
Bannatyne Spa: Spa day for two with treatments, lunch & prosecco — save up to 57% off.
Mystery Escape: Hotel stay with return flights from as low as £92pp — save on worldwide holiday packages.
Beach Retreat (Lanzarote): 4* Lanzarote beach holiday with flights — save up to 58%.
Bernard Lavelle, the principal aviation consultant at BL Aviation, told Metro: ‘At the moment, we don’t know how long the situation is going to last.’
‘We are still five weeks from the holidays, and it would be nice to think it would all be over, but we cannot rule out that there will be challenges for anyone travelling to that area, or if you need to travel through those airspaces,’ he said.
He predicted that holidaymakers are likely to be turning to UK spots, the Canary Islands, Greece, and Turkey instead, despite Turkey’s proximity to Iran.
Are you changing your Easter holiday plans because of the Middle East crisis?
-
Yes
-
No
Bernard said: ‘There were concerns over the drone incidents in Cyprus, although there are no restrictions on travelling there, and the other is Turkey. But the holiday hotspots in Turkey are hundreds of miles from the border with Iran, and there has been no indication at all of any issues in that area.
‘People should be concerned about their holiday and they need to keep up to date of what is happening, and the official FCDO advice, and talk to their tour operator.
‘But if the situation continues as it is at the moment, potentially Turkey, Cyprus and Greece should be fine for Easter holidays.’
Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, said the budget airline has seen a surge in bookings for short-haul routes within Europe for Easter holidays.
Passengers with flights already scheduled to the region should not cancel them, but instead wait and see what their airline decides, Bernard added.
Will flight prices go up due to the conflict?
Iran has closed the geopolitically sensitive Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of the world’s oil supply. Some tankers have been hit with missiles near the Strait, and plans are being drawn up for military convoys to accompany tankers.
While airlines have some buffers against oil price changes, a long closure of the Strait of Hormuz could end up having a knock-on effect on fuel and petrol prices, and eventually on flights too.
Bernard said the price of an oil barrel is still far from the peak during the Covid-19 pandemic.
He told Metro: ‘Last time I looked, it was trading at about $85 a barrel. Back during Covid times, it was at about $100 a barrel, so it is still well below that kind of a high.
‘And if it stays at that for a week or two, it is not going to make a huge amount of difference.
‘But if it stays like that for a longer period, that will start going back into the prices for airlines.’
Surprisingly, the conflict might have the opposite impact on some routes, with airlines launching offers to try boost demand if people are hesitant to fly.
‘If there is no demand, while they’ve got supply in terms of seats, companies like Ryanair might have offers for £1just to get people on board.’
O’Leary has said Ryanair has already bought fuel at $67 per barrel for the next 12 months, and he said that the latest events will not affect its low fares.
This is known as hedging, a common practice for airlines to pre-buy fuel at an agreed price for months ahead, giving them some protection from global price upheaval.
Although there is no indication of fuel supplies running out, some queues were reported at forecourts yesterday as drivers fear higher prices.
How long will the conflict last?
The crisis is now entering its fifth day, with no end in sight at the moment.
Donald Trump has said that the US military and the operation ‘Epic Fury’ was prepared to go on longer than four to five weeks – the initial time his administration had estimated it would take to kill Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, adding to uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Israel has launched fresh airstrikes on Tehran today, causing destruction in the capital.
In Kuwait, the country’s armed forces said they are dealing with a ‘wave of missiles and drones.’
What affects flight prices?
The two biggest factors affecting the price of flying are fuel and labour costs.
Seasonality also plays a major role – this means the difference between flying during the holiday season versus off-peak. To avoid season surge pricing, try catching a mid-week flight and opting for early morning departures.
Plenty of airline competition on a route usually means lower fares for passengers. Airlines will try to attract flyers with lower prices on a popular route, while a rare route with just a couple of operators holding the monopoly is likely to be more expensive.
Fuel costs account for around 25-35% of airline’s expenses, and price levels have been steadily increasing since the end of the coronavirus pandemic.
Fuel prices are sensitive to global upheaval and conflicts, especially if they put oil production facilities or transportation routes at risk like what we are seeing with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.
The time of booking your flight can impact ticket prices, so it is worth booking your trip as soon as possible.
Airlines use special algorithms that will hike up ticket prices as the date gets closer and depending on demand, called dynamic pricing.
Some airlines, like Ryanair, use a price-to-load model, Bernard said.
It means that if they are far from the 80% load target for filled seats, prices could drop until this is achieved.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.
