BRUSSELS — Berlin’s efforts to tie Ukraine’s arms purchases financed by an upcoming €90 billion loan from the EU to how much bilateral aid countries give to Kyiv is running into trouble.
It’s one part of a political clash over how Ukraine can spend the money, which will come to a head Wednesday when EU ambassadors meet to hash out eligibility criteria for the €90 billion loan.
They’re under pressure because without the loan, Ukraine will run out of money by April.
Some countries, led by France, want Ukraine to be forced to buy weapons mainly from the EU’s own defense industries. But a grouping of 19 other countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, want Ukraine to be able to buy needed systems from beyond the bloc whenever Kyiv is obliged to do so.
Now Germany’s own gambit to favor countries that are generous to Ukraine — spelled out in an amendment last week — is adding more confusion to the eligibility effort and might not be approved by ambassadors.
Some see Berlin’s initiative as aimed at spurring less generous countries to give more.
Petras Auštrevičius, a Lithuanian member of the European Parliament’s Defence and Security Committee, said he “would support the German proposal” because “the individual member states’ support picture is very uneven.”
But some diplomats told POLITICO that it’s also an effort by Germany to warn off France from strongly pursuing its ‘Buy European’ initiative.
If the money is spent how Berlin wants, that would mean big gains for Germany’s defense sector, but could harm countries like France unless they increase their bilateral donations.
Germany is by far the most generous European donor to Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute’s support tracker, Germany has allocated €19.7 billion for military aid since Russia unleashed its full-scale invasion almost four years ago.
France, meanwhile, has allocated €5.9 billion — although Paris and others dispute Kiel’s numbers — and Italy only €1.7 billion.
Adding to the fight over which country’s arms-makers should stand to gain is a parallel battle over how much control Kyiv should have over the cash it will be receiving.
The worry is that Ukraine will face limits to buying key weapons — like air defense systems — that aren’t easily available in the EU, which might hobble its military effort.
“As you take this loan forward, please, I encourage you to keep Ukraine’s needs first in focus,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament on Monday.
Rutte wants Kyiv to be able to buy from across the alliance, including the U.S., despite the problems being caused by Donald Trump.
“If they can buy it in Europe, fantastic — priority one,” he said. “Ukraine defense industry base, great. But we all know that without this flow of weaponry from the U.S., we cannot keep Ukraine in the fight. Literally not. They now provide essential interceptors, for example, to take down as many missiles as possible going into Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, night by night.”
There is also pressure from the Netherlands and other countries to ensure that third countries like the U.K. can take part in contracts financed by the EU loan. Under the Commission’s original proposal, Ukraine can already buy from the U.S. if certain weapons are not available in the EU.
Five diplomats told POLITICO that the effort to open the door to U.K. companies is likely to get strong backing during Wednesday’s ambassadors’ meeting. However, the German proposal is due for a rougher reception.
“This has never been taken seriously, and I don’t see it happening,” said a European Commission official, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity.
Wouter Beke, a Belgian member of the Parliament’s defense committee, stressed that the key is to prioritize Ukraine’s needs and not domestic interests.
“Our first line of defense in Ukraine isn’t served by too stringent clauses on what they could purchase,” he said. “Neither from an exclusive ‘Buy European’ perspective, nor based on a sort of a ‘leaderboard-driven’ mechanism.”
