One of OPEC+’s largest producers, the United Arab Emirates Tuesday announced that it will leave the oil producers’ alliance on May 1, a bombshell announcement as energy prices soar over the Middle East war.
The market responded to the news on Wednesday, rising and extending a multi-day rally.
Brent crude futures for June rose $1.11, or 1%, to $112.37 a barrel at 0647 GMT, climbing for an eighth day. The June contract expires on Thursday, and the more active July contract was at $105.32, up 0.88%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June CLc1 rose 51 cents, or 0.51%, to $100.44 a barrel after gaining 3.7% in the previous session, climbing for seven out of the last eight days.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, last year produced nearly 50% of the world’s oil and oil liquids, according to International Energy Agency estimates.
The UAE is the fourth-largest producer in OPEC+.
What Are OPEC And OPEC+?
OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia with the aims of coordinating petroleum policies and securing fair and stable prices. Today, it includes 12 countries, mainly from the Middle East. The UAE joined in 1967.
The UAE is the fourth producer to leave the group in recent years, and by far the biggest. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, quit the bloc at the start of 2024, citing disagreements over production levels. Ecuador quit OPEC in 2020 and Qatar in 2019.
The group produced over half of global crude in the 1970s, according to Reuters calculations, before the onset of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea.
In later decades, OPEC’s share stood at between 30% and 40%, but record output growth from rivals such as the United States has steadily eaten into that share.
OPEC in 2016 sought to regain influence by allying with 10 non-members, including Russia, which it called OPEC+.
As a result, its market share increased to around 51.15 million bpd, or nearly 50% of global oil and oil liquids production, in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. In March, a month into the Iran war, that share fell to about 44%.
US-Iran War Reduces UAE Production
Before the start of the U.S.-Iran war at the end of February, the UAE was producing 3.3 million bpd and had the capacity to be able to produce as much as 4.5-5.0 million bpd of crude and oil liquids.
Its importance in OPEC in the past was increased because, together with leading OPEC member Saudi Arabia, it had spare capacity that it could add to the market if required.
Gulf OPEC+ crude oil production fell by nearly 8 million barrels per day in March versus February as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq cut output, according to OPEC.
The cuts were necessary because they were limited in how much they could export, although both have some ability to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia has a 7 million bpd pipeline to the Red Sea, while the UAE can export 1.5-1.8 million bpd through a pipeline to the port of Fujairah.
READ ALSO: UAE To Withdraw From OPEC, OPEC+
OPEC And Global Oil Prices
OPEC+ says it cuts and raises oil production to balance the markets.
Its critics say the group manipulates prices, which OPEC denies.
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for its decision to resupply the Israeli military, as well as other countries that supported Israel.
The embargo banned petroleum exports to those nations.
The oil embargo pressured an already strained U.S. economy that had grown dependent on imported oil. Oil prices jumped, causing high fuel costs for consumers and fuel shortages.
The embargo also brought the United States and other countries to the brink of a global recession.
U.S. President Donald Trump has accused the organisation of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices. Trump has also linked U.S. military support to the Gulf with oil prices, saying that while the U.S. defends OPEC members, they “exploit this by imposing high oil prices”.
However, it was Trump who helped to convince OPEC+ to cut output in 2020 during the COVID pandemic as crude oil prices slumped and U.S. oil producers suffered.
In 2025, OPEC crude exports accounted for about 47% of global crude seaborne exports, according to Kpler. In March, that share shrank to 34.7%, according to Kpler data.
READ ALSO: Oil Supply Concerns Linger As Market Digests UAE OPEC Exit
Which Countries Are OPEC Members?
The current members of OPEC are: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela. The UAE said it would leave the group on May 1.
Non-OPEC countries in the global alliance of OPEC+ are represented by Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and Brazil, which joined in early 2025.
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