News of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hard-line cleric, has reportedly been met with celebrations in Tehran.
Despite the iron-fisted leader being wiped out in a joint US-Israeli operation, another obstacle to government reform remains: the feared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remain, with thousands of soldiers willing to die for the regime.
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from SOAS at the University of London told Metro that what happens to the IRGC in the coming weeks is ‘far more complex’ than the fate of Khamenei.
‘Although Khamenei was a central ideological and political authority, the IRGC is not merely loyal to a person – it is an entrenched institutional, economic, and military power structure,’ she said.
‘Over decades, it has embedded itself deeply into Iran’s political system, intelligence networks, judiciary influence, and vast economic enterprises. It functions as both a military force and a state-within-a-state.’
Institutional continuity mechanisms are already embedded into the Islamic Republic’s structure – and its succession planning is a part of its ‘survival strategy’.
‘The death of the Supreme Leader would trigger internal recalibration, not collapse,’ she added. ‘The more likely scenario is one of consolidation rather than dissolution. In moments of uncertainty, security institutions often tighten control.’
After the Ayatollah’s death, the IRGC could use the power vacuum to frame itself as a guarantor of stability, Dr Shahandeh said.
Dr. Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at King’s College London, agrees.
He told Metro that if a new, opposition-led government emerges in the aftermath of Khamenei’s death, the IRGC would make it difficult.
‘The Guards are the backbone of coercion and a central economic actor, and they are well placed to veto outcomes they see as existential,’ he explained.
‘If a ‘new government’ is instead a reconfigured version of the current system, then the IRGC is likely to be one of its main architects.’
If the IRGC manages to hang onto control of the country, a more ‘securitised’ arrangement could come to light, in which a religious figure provides symbolic legitimacy while real authority shifts to a collective security-political centre, Dr Krieg said.
Yet internal fractures cannot be ruled out. The IRGC is not monolithic; it contains competing factions with varying ideological intensities, economic interests, and political ambitions.
Though many Iranians are celebrating the death of Khamenei, this sentiment doesn’t mean the country will transform politically overnight.
‘The key certainty is this: the IRGC will not relinquish power voluntarily,’ Dr Shahandeh said.
‘It has too much institutional, economic, and ideological investment in the current system. Whether it strikes back externally, tightens repression internally, or negotiates behind the scenes will depend on how secure it feels in the immediate aftermath.’
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