Gamblers appear to have made fortunes after betting on the abduction of Venezuela’s president from his fortress in Caracas.
Among them was one anonymous trader, who raked in a profit of £303,000, leading to speculations that the top secret US operation was not so secret after all.
More than half of the total trade was placed the evening before the attack, The Wall Street Journal reported.
But they doubled down hours before US forces entered Caracas, carrying out large-scale strikes and killing at least 80 people, preliminary estimates suggest.
This suggests that someone who had access to sensitive information of what was about to happen took advantage to make some quick cash.
The bet was made on Polymarket – the world’s largest prediction market – which has previously faced scrutiny on potential insider trading.
It has grown exponentially since its launch in 2020, even attracting Donald Trump Jr, the president’s son, on its advisory board.
With the number of active users approaching 500,000 every month, people now seem to be betting on anything and everything – including geopolitics.
Currently, the top trending bet on the platform is Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, will be ousted by June 30.
Other bets include a deadline on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and both the Democratic and Republican nominees for 2028.
While Americans currently do not have access to the main platform, many traders use VPNs to get around the ban.
Insider trading on capital markets is illegal and regularly prosecuted by the US government, but online prediction markets are less regulated, according to Axios.
Some politicians, however, are starting to take note.
After the news emerged on Monday, Democratic congressman Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce a bill this week that would bar elected officials, lawmakers and federal employees from making insider trades on prediction sites such as Polymarket.
Specifically, the bill prohibits such government officials from trading based on information that is not publicly available and that ‘a reasonable investor would consider important in making an investment decision.’
It is unclear if Mike Johnson, the House of Representatives speaker, would bring the bill to a vote, or if Donald Trump would sign it if it passed both houses of Congress.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
For more stories like this, check our news page.