This evening, Prime Minister Keir Starmer will stand in front of Labour MPs and try to set out why they should stick with him as their leader.
He spent his career as one of the country’s top lawyers before rising to the summit of British politics. Both of those roles would suggest he knows how to make a convincing argument.
Yet the circumstances are dire. Yesterday, his top aide Morgan McSweeney resigned over the Mandelson controversy – even though it was, of course, the PM who made the final decision to hire the Labour grandee as ambassador to the US.
With Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar reportedly preparing to publicly call for Starmer to quit, the pressure is growing by the minute.
Metro has obtained a copy of the plan concocted by Downing Street ahead of their crucial effort to sell Starmer to the Parliamentary Labour Party this week.
Here are the main points in favour of keeping the Prime Minister in post, and the counterarguments that could lead to his quick demise.
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FOR
Another fresh start
There has been no shortage of so-called ‘resets’ in the 19 months since Keir Starmer entered No 10, as the foundering PM repeatedly tried to convince the country he was getting back on track.
This time, though, there’s a clear reason to believe substantial changes are on the horizon.
Morgan McSweeney was a target for criticism by many MPs, some of whom blamed him for a ‘boy’s club’ culture in Downing Street.
With him out the picture, Starmer has brought in two well-regarded women – Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson – to jointly fill the critical role as his acting chiefs of staff.
Meanwhile, the crux of the argument to be made by the PM’s team this week is forcing out the sleaze in public life they say is typified by the Mandelson revelations.
The appointments process and rules around lobbying will both be strengthened, with more moves to be set out in the coming days.
Starmer is the right person to bring those changes in, they will say, as a former Director of Public Prosecutions who is driven by values of public service.
Risk of return to chaos under Tories
From long before the beginning of the 2024 general election campaign, Starmer was determined to send one clear message: vote Labour for a return to competent, stable government.
Stop giggling at the back – at the very least, Labour has managed to keep the same leader for six years, while the Tories had five between 2016 and 2022.
Yes, we’ve had ministerial resignations and one major reshuffle, but a leadership coup would truly send a message to the public that there’s no end to political chaos with the red team in charge.
This was the argument made by Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden on Sky News yesterday, who said another change would damage the UK ‘economically, politically and reputationally around the world’.
No clear replacement
This is the one argument you won’t hear from the Downing Street team – not on the record, at least.
But there’s no obvious choice within the Parliamentary Labour Party for who could immediately step in to run the country if Starmer was to depart.
The two most cited potential candidates face serious challenges: Angela Rayner still hasn’t received the all-clear on her tax affairs from HMRC, while there are questions over Wes Streeting’s own links to Lord Mandelson.
What’s more, those two figures represent fiercely opposed factions within Labour, so a leadership contest carries the real risk of splitting the party irrevocably.
Plus there’s the obvious point that such a contest would distract from working on the plentiful and substantial issues facing the country for a precious few weeks.
AGAINST
Terminal unpopularity
Keir Starmer is wildly unpopular. He’s less popular than Liz Truss after the mini-budget; Boris Johnson during Partygate; Tony Blair at the height of the Iraq War.
The precise reasons for this might be a little muddy, but that doesn’t make it any less true. And crucially, his approval has only been going in one direction since the election. It’s not a rollercoaster, it’s a helter skelter.
This might not be so much of an issue if he just had to prove he could get the country back on track by the next general election, due in August 2029.
But the PM’s unpopularity has already had major consequences at local elections and by-elections. More disaster could be around the corner in Gorton and Denton and the Scottish, Welsh and local elections in May.
Perhaps a fresh face, a better communicator and someone without the baggage of leaping from controversy to controversy in government would fare better?
Ultimate decision-maker
Morgan McSweeney resigned from his top role in Downing Street yesterday after taking ownership of the advice to appoint Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
However, he wasn’t responsible for the final decision to make the move. Keir Starmer was.
And it’s not just Mandelson – critics of the PM will point to all the painful decisions in the past 19 months that have eroded the public’s faith in Labour. As leader, Starmer should take ownership of them all.
This links to the general air of weakness around the Prime Minister’s authority, with a reputation for U-turns that maximise political damage with minimal profit.
Questions over direction
A regular criticism of Keir Starmer’s government is its lack of a coherent ‘story’, which would allow it to explain to the public how its policies reflect its values.
Instead, the PM has emphasised a style of politics where problems are identified and relevant solutions are applied, without much thought for ideology.
Critics might argue this has allowed more natural political storytellers like Nigel Farage of Reform and Zack Polanski of the Green Party to swoop in.
Those concerns may only be exacerbated by McSweeney’s exit – he was widely considered to be the main political brain in Starmer’s Downing Street, setting out the broad strategy behind the big decisions.
This week, we will find out just how much – or how little – the Prime Minister relied on his Chief of Staff in real life.
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